Sees 500 COVID cases daily by end June
AMID the threat of a full-blown surge in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, the independent OCTA Research yesterday called for the reimposition of restrictions in workplace and public transportation capacities in the National Capital Region.
In a televised public briefing, OCTA fellow Dr Guido David said that with cases rising in Metro Manila again, it would be good if the government and the private sector will agree to limit on-site work and the number of passengers in public utility vehicles (PUVs).
“At the minimum, we may need to reduce capacity in transportation and indoor establishments. This is so we can avoid crowded establishments,” said David.
He said that “with many workers already back on-site… we may consider reducing office capacity and go back to the work-from-home set-up.”
David said it would also be better if the government defers the planned resumption of face-to-face classes in public schools and universities in Metro Manila.
“If we will have face-to-face classes start in August, we expect that this possible surge would be over by then. But if it will start this June, we might want to push it back by at least a month or so. If not, we must have the proper protocols in place to protect the students,” he said.
Yesterday, David said they are projecting that COVID-19 cases in the region may spike up to 500 per day by the end of June because “as we can see now, cases in Metro Manila continue to increase and is increasing faster.”
“Our projection is, by the end of June, we may even reach 400 to 500 per day, from only 65 cases per day before,” he said, adding that there is even the possibility that NCR cases may go up to as high as 1,000 per day.
“We will recalibrate if the trends change since there remains the possibility that the increase becomes faster. Hopefully, we won’t reach the 1,000 cases per day, but the possibility is there,” he also said.
David noted the raising of the “yellow” status in Quezon City, which he said is already an indicator that cases in Metro Manila are increasing.
“As of now, we see that QC, Manila, Makati, and Parañaque are at yellow (status). Other LGUs in Metro Manila are expected to follow soon,” said David.
The OCTA said the seven-day average COVID-19 cases in the NCR went up from 86 to 131 cases, while its reproduction number saw a rise from 1.21 to 1.59. The positivity rate likewise went up to 2.7 percent from 1.5 percent.
On Monday, OCTA said its projections show that Metro Manila may go back to “moderate” risk classification this month if the current trend continues.
While OCTA sees the NCR escalating to moderate risk within the month, the Department of Health (DOH) yesterday said the criteria for such risk classification is only halfway met.
In a brief statement, the DOH said that “for an area to be classified under moderate risk, it should have a positive two-week growth rate (TWGR) and average daily attack rate (ADAR) of at least 6 cases per day per 100,000 population.”
“As of June 10, 2022, while NCR shows positive TWGR, its ADAR is still below 6 at less than 1 case per 100,000 population,” it said.
The health department admitted, though, that going up to moderate risk classification is one of the factors in raising Alert Level 2 in a particular area.
“For NCR to be escalated to Alert Level 2, it needs to be classified under moderate risk classification in lieu of the current low risk total bed utilization,” said the DOH.
In a radio interview, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said several factors are contributing to the increasing cases in Metro Manila: the presence of several subvariants of COVID-19, particularly BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5; high mobility of people similar to pre-pandemic levels, and the waning immunity of vaccinated individuals.
The DOH appealed to the public to continue to observe minimum public health standards, such as wearing face masks, isolating when sick, and ensuring good airflow.
Eligible individuals are also urged anew to get vaccinated and boosted against COVID-19 at the soonest time possible.
