CORONAVIRUS disease (COVID-19) cases in the entire Philippines may drop to less than 10,000 per day by the middle of February, or to 5,000 daily by the end of the month if the current downtrend is sustained, the independent OCTA Research yesterday said.
In a televised public briefing, OCTA fellow Guido David said that “last week, it was still difficult to see the trend as some provinces are still seeing surge in cases. Now, based on what we are seeing, it is really going down.”
“Based on our projection, it will likely go down to less than 10,000 by mid- February. And by late February, I am expecting that we will be around 5,000 cases per day,” David also said.
David said this is because many areas have already reached their peak in COVID-19 cases and are now experiencing a drop in their cases.
“Almost all of Luzon and Visayas have already peaked or are declining. They include Baguio City, Calabarzon, Central Luzon, Cebu City, Tacloban City, Iloilo. Even in Mindanao, Davao City is already on a decline,” he said.
“There are only a few regions that are seeing accelerating cases, like Negros Oriental, Bukidnon, Cotabato, mostly in Mindanao areas,” David said.
David said he would have preferred if the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases waited for the region to reach the “low risk” classification before deciding to downgrade it to Alert Level 2.
He said that while the “moderate risk” classification already permits the deescalation of the National Capital Region (NCR), it would have been better if Alert Level 3 was retained for one or two more weeks.
“We are not against the Alert Level 2. But, from our perspective, we could have waited for another week or two before shifting,” said David.
Metro Manila and seven other provinces shifted to Alert Level 2 effective February.
Asked if the early deescalation could lead to a resurgence in cases in the Metro, David said a major one is unlikely.
“I am not that concerned over a resurgence. Most likely, we won’t see a major resurgence.
It is not in our projections. But we are not saying that it would be impossible,” he said.
“This is why we still can’t be stubborn. We still need to observe the minimum public health standards,” added David.
