Alert Status 2 likely if downtrend sustained — expert
AFTER almost a month, the reproduction rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) has dropped below 1, according to the independent OCTA Research.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said the reproduction number in the NCR has decreased to 0.91, as of January 21.
“It is less than 1 for the first time since December 23, 2021,” said David.
The reproduction rate is the expected number of cases from exposure to a positive individual.
According to the World Health Organization, the ideal reproduction rate is less than 1, as having greater than 1 means that the infection will spread exponentially.
David noted how the current reproduction rate is a stark improvement from the situation three weeks ago.
“The reproduction number was as high as 6 on January 2,” said David.
If the trend continues, David said his earlier projection of seeing 1,000 cases per day by Valentine’s Day could be met earlier.
“At this rate, we could have less than 1,000 cases per day by the first week of February,” said David.
On Monday, the Department of Health (DOH) said COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila has already reached its peak.
National Task Force against coronavirus disease (NTF COVID-19) medical adviser Ted Herbosa said that if COVID-19 indicators in Metro Manila continue to drop, the region’s alert status can be deescalated to Alert Level 2.
The NCR and 50 other provinces and cities are under Alert Level 3 until January 31, while four provinces are under Alert level 4.
Herbosa, during an interview with radio DzBB, noted how the current number of COVID-19 cases in NCR hospitals are going down, apart from the declining number of recorded new active cases.
“Pwede talaga kung tuloy-tuloy ang pagbaba ng kaso at ang pagbawas ng mga pasyente sa ospital. So binabantayan talaga at may mga pamantayan na ginagamit ang ating DOH, at IATF (Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases) diyan (De-escalation of alert level is possible if the decline in active cases and the number of hospital confinement continue to go down. That is being monitored and the DOH and the IATF are using these indicators to decide),” he said.
Herbosa said the indicators include the seven-day daily attack rate, the 140-day growth rate, hospitalization rates and vaccination rates in an area, among others.
He said these figures are also compared to previous data to determine if there is a down or upward trend.
Health Secretary Francisco Duque III on Monday night said the IATF will meet on Thursday to discuss the current alert levels, including the NCR’s Alert Level 3.
Duque, in his report to the President, said the situation in Metro Manila is improving but noted the spike in cases in other parts of the country.
“A big percentage of cases have dropped. Hopefully this will continue so we will have a bigger possibility of de-escalating to Alert Level 2, especially for National Capital Region,” he said.
Duque said the two-week growth rate in NCR has dropped to 65 percent from 7,225 percent, but its daily attack rate went up to 84.56 from 51 percent. NCR is classified under high risk.
He said the bigger concern now is for the 14 regions that are classified as critical, which includes regions I (Ilocos), II (Cagayan Valley), III (Central Luzon), IV-A (Calabarzon), V (Bicol), VI (Western Visayas), VII (Central Visayas), VIII (Eastern Visayas), IX (Zamboanga Peninsula), X (Northern Mindanao), XI (Davao Region), XIII (Caraga), and the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) due to an increase in their average daily attack rate and two-week growth rates.
MILITARY AUGMENTATION
The Armed Forces has deployed over 500 military personnel to augment the staff of Metro hospitals and isolation facilities.
During President Duterte’s Talk to the People on Monday night, AFP chief Gen. Andres Centino said five medical teams, composed of 55 personnel, were sent to augment the NCR hospitals in coordination with the DOH.
Centino also said the military has dispatched 54 security teams, composed of 486 personnel, “to secure quarantine and isolation facilities” in the metropolis.
STEALTH OMICRON
The DOH yesterday backtracked on its earlier statement that the “stealth” Omicron variant has yet to be detected in the country as Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said 10 of the 17 regions in the Philippines has the BA.2 lineage of the Omicron variant.
“With the help of the Philippine Genome Center, upon further analysis, we have detected both the BA.1 and BA.2 in the country. The BA.2 has been detected among local cases in several regions,” Vergeire said.
In particular, Vergeire said the BA.2 sub-lineage was detected in Omicron variant cases in CAR, Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, NCR, Western Visayas, Central Visayas, Soccsksargen, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.
On the other hand, Vergeire said the other sub-lineage, BA.1, is found mostly among returning overseas Filipinos (ROFs) and in cases in the Bicol Region.
BA.1 is the globally prevalent Omicron sub-lineage, although there has been a recent increase in the detection of BA.2.
Despite this, Vergeire said there is nothing to be alarmed over the presence of the “stealth” Omicron subvariants since the two are almost identical in their characteristics.
“There is no significant difference in the clinical presentation between BA.1 and BA.2, although there is still limited available data,” said Vergeire. — With Jocelyn Montemayor and Victor Reyes
