CORONAVIRUS disease (COVID-19) cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) are currently seeing a downward trend after a brief surge last month, according to the independent OCTA Research.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said the infections in Metro Manila has been on a decline in recent weeks after the peak on October 1.
“New COVID-19 cases in the NCR have been decreasing since October 1, when the NCR had 1,719 new cases, based on DOH data,” said David.
Data shows that the region’s 7-day average of new cases has decreased to 491 (October 19 to 25) from 807 (October 12 to 18), or a negative 39 percent one week growth rate, which is much lower than the previous one week growth rate of negative 7 percent.
The reproduction number in Metro Manila has also dropped to 0.74 (October 25) from 0.98 (October 15).
The OCTA also said that the positivity rate has decreased gone down to 11.6 percent (October 24) from 14.6 percent (October 17), while healthcare utilization rate is now at 29 percent (October 24) from 35 percent (October 17).
David said they are hopeful that the trend will continue despite the continued threat of different COVID-19 variants and subvariants.
“Hopefully, the downward trend continues until the December holidays, but there is uncertainty in the trends because of the presence of other subvariants around the world,” said David.
The Department of Health (DOH) said that aside from the threats of coronavirus variants and subvariants, the voluntary wearing of face masks in indoor areas is projected to cause an uptick in cases in the country.
On Tuesday, Tourism Secretary Christina Frasco announced that President Marcos has approved the voluntary wearing of face masks in indoor areas, with an executive order set to be issued. The policy shift was recommended by the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF).
In an online media forum, DOH — Epidemiology Bureau Director Dr. Alethea de Guzman: “As we all know, every time we take out or remove a layer of protection, we can expect that cases will increase.”
She, however, stressed that an increase in cases won’t automatically mean that the country should expect another surge because recent experience have shown that easing of restrictions does not always lead to a new wave.
“The past few months have shown us that even if we had increases in our cases, these were slight increases,” she said.
It can be recalled that the order allowing the voluntary wearing of face masks in outdoor areas last month has not caused a major surge in cases.
Instead of focusing on the potential case uptick, the health official urged the public to instead monitor the healthcare utilization rates as part of the paradigm shift being pushed by the health department, wherein the country is more focused on health systems capacity.
“Before, we are focused on the number of cases. Now, we must monitor the number of hospitalization, healthcare utilization rates, and on whether these are not getting overwhelmed,” said De Guzman.
On the other hand, she said the lifting of the indoor mask mandate must also prompt those yet to be vaccinated to get jabbed against COVID-19, which is one of the foremost weapon against the virus.
“It will be the vaccine that will help mitigate and reduce whatever negative impact we will have with the removal of another layer of protection,” she added.
‘NORMAL’
Infectious diseases expert Rontgene Solante, during the “Laging Handa” public briefing, raised concerns about the easing of the indoor masking policy amid the threats from new Omicron subvariants.
Solante said the people should be more careful, especially as a sudden increase in cases could overwhelm the country’s healthcare utilization.
“I think the government really wants to open up the country, open up the economy. People are encouraged to go on with their lives. Pero at the other end, talagang may agam-agam tayo dyan, especially for now na nandito ang XBB at XBC and when you make face masks optional indoor, meron talagang risk diyan (I think the government really wants to open up the country, open up the economy. People are encouraged to go on with their lives. But on the other end, we have doubts about that, especially that we still have the XBB and XBC and when you make face masks optional indoors, there will be a risk),” he said.
At the House, the Kabataan party-list warned against the “normalization” of COVID-19, insisting the need for scientific health protocols as Malacañang plans to make face masks optional in indoor spaces.
“By making masks optional and giving up on the other aforementioned measures, the Philippine government is following the trend to ‘normalize’ the spread of COVID-19. Ironically, this approach prolongs the pandemic by giving the variants of the coronavirus more opportunities to become more evasive of the immunity provided by COVID-19 vaccines,” said Kabataan which is led by 27-year-old Rep. Raoul Manuel.
The militant party-list, which is part of the Makabayan bloc, reminded the Executive that COVID-19 is an airborne disease, which is means that the virus is “primarily spread through the air.”
Kabataan said numerous studies have shown that the wearing of well-fitting masks and the upgrading of ventilation and air filtration have the potential to significantly reduce the chances of COVID-19 transmission in indoor spaces.
It said these measures must be coupled with measures like “accessible testing, efficient tracing, free treatment, intensified vaccination drives and disease surveillance.”
Kabataan said making the wearing of masks optional “will not automatically make the Philippines a sexy investment hub or pave the way for our economic upsurge.”
“If fundamentals remain unaddressed such as soaring inflation, ballooning foreign debt and joblessness, optional mask policies stand to risk raising more COVID-19 cases rather than more wealth in our country,” it said.
The group said the recent steps of the national government “do not boost the confidence of investors, health workers and the public in general.”
“Appointing a non-health expert as a Department of Health undersecretary, loosening the mask mandate, and proposing budget cuts for key health programs do not show readiness to connect with the global community, but instead reveal that our national government still does not know how to manage our current health crisis towards recovery,” the youth party-list said.
The militant party-list group also said the end of the pandemic will keep “getting farther and farther from sight as long as the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is allowed to evolve into new variants at a pace that is much faster compared to the development of up-to-date prevention and treatment measures by governments and institutions. “
‘TIME TO START’
President Marcos Jr. said primary health care tops his administration’s agenda, which includes sustaining the effective delivery of essential health services while fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and addressing other health crises.
This was the message of President Marcos Jr. to Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), who paid a courtesy call on him in Malacañang on Tuesday.
The President said the Philippines, like many nations in the world, learned a lot from the pandemic and is now managing to live with it.
“It is the time to start. Even in the psychology of our people, they think that we are now managing COVID very well,” he said.
“[We need to] bring back the other issues that were neglected during the height of the pandemic. There’s so much to do. We have to take care of our people,” he added.
Ghebreyesus said the COVID-19 pandemic taught nations the importance of having adequate testing and preparedness which are crucial to battling disease outbreaks.
“If we continue to be vigilant, we can solve it. So, what I expect is for the future, maybe in the next few months or more, I think we will move forward,” he said.
Ghebreyesus is in the country to participate in the 73rd WHO – Western Pacific Regional Committee Meeting (WPRCM) being held in Manila from October 24-28.
PH DEATHS
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said COVID-19 remains as one of the top causes of death in the country as of end-July, but the number of deaths is significantly fewer compared to the same period a year ago.
PSA data showed that COVID-19 accounted for a total of 12,083 deaths, or 3.9 percent of the total registered deaths from January to July 2022.
By classification, COVID-19 with virus identified and COVID-19 virus not identified were both included in the 20 leading causes of death.
COVID-19 with virus identified was the 10th leading cause of death in the country with 8,586 cases or 2.8 percent of the total deaths.
It however declined by 70.6 percent from the 29,208 recorded in the same seven-month period a year ago, when it ranked fifth.
Meanwhile, registered deaths due to COVID-19 with virus not identified accounted for 3,497 or 1.1 percent of the total deaths, making it the 19th leading cause of death.
It also declined by 75.7 percent from the 14,380 recorded deaths a year ago. In January to July 2021, COVID-19 with virus not identified ranked nine in the leading causes of death.
“Figures in this release, specifically for deaths due to COVID-19, may differ from the one released by the Department of Health (DOH) because the figures in this release were obtained from the certificates of death, particularly the descriptions written on the medical certificate portion therein as reviewed by the health officer of the local government unit concerned. On the other hand, the figures released by the DOH were obtained through a surveillance system,” the PSA said.
The PSA added that the figures for deaths due to COVID-19 refer to both confirmed and probable cases as of registration.
COVID-19-virus identified is used when COVID-19 is confirmed by a laboratory test, while COVID-19-virus not identified is used for suspected or probable cases, as well as clinically-epidemiologically diagnosed COVID-19 cases where testing was not completed or inconclusive. — With Wendell Vigilia, Jocelyn Montemayor and Angela Celis
