OCTA says positivity, repro rates also down
THE independent OCTA Research yesterday reported a decline in the growth, positivity, and reproduction rates of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the National Capital Region, fanning hopes that the current surge being experienced by the country will peak soon.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said the growth rate in Metro Manila slowed to 5 percent on August 9, from 14 percent on August 2.
Similarly, the reproduction rate in the region also decreased to 1.17 from 1.24 a week ago, while the positivity rate dropped to 15.9 percent from 16.9 percent.
The 15.9 positivity rate, though, is still way higher than the ideal threshold of 5 percent positivity rate set by the World Health Organization.
“(We are) hoping and projecting that cases (will) peak by next week in the NCR,” David said.
But while the COVID factors are going down, David said OCTA data also showed that the region’s seven-day average has gone up to 1,275 cases as of August 9, from 1,209 cases last week.
“The trends need to be consistent for about a week before we can confidently say there is a downward trend,” said David.
The OCTA and the Department of Health are waiting for the current surge to peak, both pointing out that this will signal the start of the decline in COVID-19 cases.
