THE Department of Health (DOH) yesterday said the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) or Metro Manila is starting to peak, as shown by a continuous increase in the past days.
This developed as the DOH, in its latest case bulletin, said the number of new COVID-19 cases reported nationwide from June 13 to 19 has risen to 436 daily, or 82 percent higher than the previous seven-day period of June 6 to 12.
In total, the last seven days recorded 3,051 cases.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said there has been a “significant” increase in COVID-19 cases compared to the previous months.
“Right now, what we are seeing is that cases are continuously increasing, especially in the NCR. We can see that this is the start of the peak in the number of cases,” said said in an interview with CNN Philippines.
Vergeire said said the “start of the peak” only means that numbers will still climb in the coming weeks.
“We are seeing continuous increase and we are guiding the public that this might be the start of the number of cases continuously rising in next couple of weeks,” she said.
The DOH projection was backed by the independent OCTA Research group which said that new cases in Metro Manila may even average at 400 a day by the end of the week.
In a separate interview, OCTA fellow Guido David said this is unless a drastic factor emerges to reverse the current trend.
“In the NCR, it has increased from 115 to 212 cases per day. We are seeing an 84 percent increase. If this continues, we will be definitely seeing a higher number over the coming weeks,” said David.
“Unless something causes a reversal, we could see about 400 cases in the NCR by the end of this week,” he added.
David said Metro Manila now has a high reproduction rate of “up to 2.”
“That means there are 2 infections for each person, who has the virus,” he said.
David said OCTA is also projecting an increase in COVID-19 cases nationwide outside Metro Manila, where daily cases may climb to as high as 1,000.
“The seven-day average in the country has increased to 437 from 240 last week. That is an 82 percent one week growth,” said David.
“In the whole country, we could be up to 1,000 cases by this time next week. That would qualify weak surge category,” he added.
Vergeire said the DOH is also closely monitoring the COVID-19 situation in six other regions in the country. These are Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Western Visayas and Northern Mindanao.
Asked what is causing the rise in cases, she said the main factor is the entry of OVID-19 sub-variants and sub-lineages as they are “more transmissible and can evade immunity.”
Other factors, she said, are the increased mobility of Filipinos to “pre-pandemic levels” and waning immunity from COVID-19, especially given the “slow uptake in boosters.”
The DOH bulletin said 15 additional severe and critical cases, and six deaths were reported in the past week.
The DOH also reported 554 severe and critical cases in the country as of June 19.
Of the total severe and critical cases, 385 of them are occupying ICU beds. The number of occupied ICU beds account for 14.6 percent of the 2,636 total nationwide.
On the other hand, there are 4,033 COVID-19 patients occupying COVID-19 beds. This is 18.2 percent of the 22,156 total COVID-19 beds allocated nationwide.
