TAIPEI- Taiwan’s exports likely dropped 14 percent in February, according to the median forecast of 21 analysts polled by Reuters, smaller than the 21.2 percent annual slide in January.
The export forecasts varied widely, ranging from a 25.4 percent contraction and an 11.7 percent jump.
The variation reflects uncertainties over the global economy, supply chain disruptions due to COVID cases in China and the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Taiwan is one of Asia’s major exporters, especially of technology goods, and its export trend is a key gauge of global demand for technology gadgets worldwide.
Last month, Taiwan’s finance ministry said that February exports could contract 7 percent to 11 percent from a year earlier, and drop around 10 percent in the first quarter.
Inflation in February was estimated to have been 2.69 percent higher year on year, coming down slightly from a 3.04 percent rise seen in January, according to the poll.
Taiwan’s exports fell for a fifth straight month in January due to a deteriorating global economy and factory closures during the long Lunar New Year holiday, with the outlook remaining poor in the short term.
Exports dropped 21.2 percent by value last month from a year earlier to $31.51 billion, the Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday.
That followed a 12.1 percent drop in December, and was slightly worse than Reuters poll forecast for a 20 percent contraction.
The ministry said seasonally weaker global demand after the year-end festive period and fewer working days, as the Lunar New Year fell in January this year, dragged on exports.
Taiwan’s total shipments of electronics components in January fell 20.1 percent to $12.72 billion, the worst decline in 11 years, with semiconductor exports down 18.3 percent from a year earlier.
Firms such as TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, are major suppliers to Apple Inc and other global tech giants, as well as providers of chips for auto companies and lower-end consumer goods.
United Microelectronics Corp, a smaller competitor of TSMC, reported on Monday that January sales dropped 4.31 percent year-on-year. – Reuters
