LAUNCESTON, Australia- Russia is putting on a brave face when it comes to Europe’s planned ban on coal imports, with Moscow saying it will simply sell to other markets.
By other markets, Russia most likely means Asia and Moscow is most likely being hopelessly optimistic if it thinks Asia is going to swing dramatically towards Russian coal and replace what’s lost in exports to Europe.
The European Union agreed on April 8 a series of new sanctions on Russia, including banning imports of coal, which totaled 48.7 million tons in 2021.
Russia hit back later that day, saying coal exports would be redirected to other markets, and that the ban will backfire on Europe.
But Moscow could be in for a shock if it’s banking on Asia as there are already signs that the most populous continent is likely to buy less Russian coal, rather than more, in coming months.
Japan, the world’s third-biggest coal importer, has already moved to ban imports from Russia, with Trade Minister Koichi Haguida saying on April 8 that the country would end purchases from Russia, and seek to find alternatives.
Russia supplied about 11 percent of Japan’s coal imports in 2021 and ending purchases would likely come at a high cost, given the alternatives are likely limited to more expensive, and geographically distant, cargoes from Australia and the United States.
Japan already appears to be scaling back imports of Russian coal, with commodity analysts Kpler estimating April’s imports will reach around 687,000 tons, down from 871,000 in March and official customs data of 1.57 million in February.
If Japan cuts out Russian coal completely, it means that almost 20 million tons of coal will be looking for new buyers, given Japan’s official imports from Russia were 19.73 million in 2021.
China, the world’s biggest coal importer, would seem an obvious destination for Russian coal, given Beijing’s ongoing support for Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.
