The Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has kept its growth forecasts for the Philippines for this year and next.
According to the latest quarterly update of the Asean+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) released yesterday, the Philippines is projected to grow by 6.1 percent this year and 6.3 percent next year.
The estimates are similar to its July 2024 quarterly update.
AMRO’s latest estimate for the Philippines’ growth this year is at the lower end of the government’s growth assumption of six to seven percent.
Meanwhile, the projection for 2025 falls below the Philippine government’s estimated band of 6.5 to 7.5 percent.
In a virtual briefing yesterday, AMRO chief economist Hoe Ee Khor said the estimates were kept mainly due to the expectation that government investment spending will be higher this year, together with services exports.
“So like most of the other countries, Philippines…last year, interest rate was pretty high. The government has cut interest rate by 25 basis point, and it’s indicated for another cut later this month,” Khor said.
“We know that 6.1 percent is (at the low end of) the government’s target, but it’s still among the strongest in the region,” he added.
Only Vietnam is expected to outpace the growth projections for the Philippines, for this year and next.
The inflation expectations for the Philippines were also kept at 3.3 percent for 2024 and 3.1 percent for 2025.
“…the (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) governor (Eli Semolina) himself indicated that there’s potential for further cut of 25 basis point, but he’s going to wait until and look at the numbers on inflation,” Khor said.
“So far, inflation has behaved pretty well. It spiked up in July, and then it came back down in August, and our expectation is continue to trend down and for the whole year, our forecast for inflation is 3.3 percent,” he added.
