Philippine shares may trade sideways with a downward bias this week as renewed global trade tensions intensify and investors await fresh data on overseas Filipino remittances.
Analysts said the market remains vulnerable to volatility after former US President Donald Trump expanded his tariff threats over the weekend, slapping new duties on Canada, the EU, and Mexico—while maintaining a 20 percent levy on Philippine exports starting August 1.
Investors are also bracing for May remittance figures from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, due Tuesday, July 15, as a barometer of domestic consumption strength.
“Tariff threats continue to cast downside risk,” Japhet Tantiangco of Philstocks Financial said. “Investors will be watching for progress in Manila’s trade negotiations with Washington. Any breakthrough could help lift sentiment; otherwise, the index may drift lower.”
Last week, the benchmark PSEi climbed 1.01 percent to close at 6,459.88, while the broader All Shares rose 1.27 percent to 3,812.53.
Despite the gains, the PSEi remains down 1.06 percent in the year-to-date.
Foreign funds were net sellers for the week, offloading P799.66 million worth of shares, bringing year-to-date outflows to P39.75 billion.
Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., warned that persistent uncertainty around US tariffs and ballooning US debt continue to create a “wall of worry.” He sees the PSEi trading between 6,000 and 6,500 in the near term.
Michael Ricafort of Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. said markets are in wait-and-see mode, citing Trump’s pattern of tariff escalation followed by retreat. “TACO—Trump Always Chickens Out—has been the usual playbook,” he said.
Still, 2TradeAsia noted that the 20 percent tariff on Philippine goods remains lower than the 36 percent imposed on regional peers like Cambodia and Thailand. More critical, it said, is the strategic exemption granted to semiconductors and electronics, which account for more than half of the country’s exports to the US.
“This disruption, while real, could paradoxically reposition the Philippines as a more attractive supply chain node,” 2TradeAsia said, though it warned that inflation risk, yield volatility, and foreign exchange swings are likely to persist amid murky policy direction.
Tantiangco added that local valuations remain attractive, with the market trading at 11.6X price-to-earnings ratio—well below its five-year average of 17.3X and the regional average of 16.6X.
