The Taal volcanic eruption will not have a major impact on economic growth, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said.
In a press conference at the NEDA office in Pasig yesterday, Ernesto Pernia, socioeconomic planning secretary, said the eruption it will only have a “momentary or passing effect” on poverty.
“In the end (the) poverty (rate) will continue to (go) down,” Pernia said.
“We don’t see it having a major effect unless there will be a violent eruption and then we have to do our recalculations. Based on our preliminary assessments, 0.17 percent of the 2018 GRDP (gross regional domestic product) of CALABARZON is the estimated foregone income,” said Adoracion Navarro, NEDA undersecretary.
Pernia, however, said the economic foregone income does not include the damage to infrastructure, for both public and private assets.
“That hasn’t been calculated yet. Note also that (for) any disaster, and the aftermath of typhoons and volcanic eruptions, there’s going to be a lot of activity, economic activity, in terms of reconstruction and rehabilitation, and that’s going to create jobs and stimulate economy,” Pernia said.
“Government spending will be substantial. So that will stimulate the economy, and then the multiplier effects… will at least partly compensate for the foregone income and then maybe some of infrastructure and asset damage,” he added.
According to Navarro, under the first scenario, which considers the eruption’s effects on the industry and services within the 14-kilometer radius, the foregone income in the economic sectors is equivalent to P4.314 billion or 0.17 percent of the 2018 GRDP of CALABARZON.
Under the second scenario, which considers the effects on industry and services within the 17-km. radius, the foregone income in the economic sectors is P6.66 billion, or 0.26 percent of 2018 GRDP of CALABARZON.
Meanwhile, Navarro, citing the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council situational report, said there are a total of 50,599 families or 203,763 persons from the evacuated barangays, as recorded in evacuation centers in Batangas, Cavite and Laguna.
She added there are about 2,761 sustenance fisherfolk in Taal lake whose livelihood depends on the lake by gathering finfish, crustaceans and mollusks.
