Group says region’s repro, growth rates on downtrend
THE independent OCTA Research group yesterday said that if the current downtrend in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila will continue, the numbers may soon drop to an average of 2,000 daily by next month.
OCTA Research fellow Guido David said the reproduction rate in the National Capital Region (NCR), the country’s epicenter of the pandemic, is now under 1, which is the ideal number set by the World Health Organization (WHO).
The case growth rate, David added, has also dropped to negative 20 percent.
“The reproduction number in Metro Manila has now gone down to less than 1. It is 0.99.
We also have a growth rate of minus 20 percent. This means the average daily cases this week is lower by 20 percent compared to last week,” he said.
Given the decrease in numbers, David said the number of cases in the region is likely to drop to an average of 2,000 daily cases by October.
“In Metro Manila, we expect that by the end of the month, we are already at 4,000 average daily cases. By October, probably, we will be at 2,000 to 3,000 average daily cases by then,” David said.
As of September 22, the seven-day average daily cases in Metro Manila have been recorded at 4,674.
Asked if the pilot testing of the new quarantine restriction scheme in the NCR helped in the decline in cases, David said signs point to the possibility.
“Cases started to go down last week. Since the alert level system was introduced in September 16, we have seen some effects of the granular lockdown and we haven’t seen a spike in cases for now. So, this means that such interventions are effective,” he said.
David said that if the situation in Metro Manila continues to improve, the granular lockdown system will likely be adopted across the country.
“We are not seeing spikes in Metro Manila, where it is being pilot tested. It shows that granular lockdowns are effective. Maybe, we can try this in other regions after this second week of the pilot testing,” he said.
But David urged NCR residents not to be complacent, and instead continue to strictly observe minimum health guidelines to stop the spread of the virus.
“We are just starting to see the decline in cases. But it is still high. So, we must continue to adhere to the health protocols,” he said.
