THE reproduction rate of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Metro Manila (National Capital Region) is down to 1.39 and could go below 1 later this month as projected by a group of experts monitoring the COVID situation in the country.
The World Health Organization has said the target is to maintain COVID-19’s reproduction rate at below 1.
A decreasing reproduction rate means the spread of the virus is slowing down.
In its latest monitoring report, the OCTA Research group said the reproduction rate of 1.39 “is below the ‘critical’ level cutoff of 1.4.”
This is lower than the 1.78 rate from August 11 to 17 and 1.53 from August 18 to 24, which OCTA said are considered “critical” levels.
“Based on current trends, it is possible that the reproduction number in the NCR may decrease below 1 by the third week of September,” said OCTA.
However, the OCTA report also showed that 11 of the 16 cities and one town in Metro Manila cities are still at “critical” level in terms of reproduction.
They are San Juan (1.69), Taguig (1.65), Pateros town (1.56), Mandaluyong (1.57), Pasig (1.55), Navotas (1.48), Parañaque (1.45), Marikina (1.46) and Makati, Muntinlupa and Malabon, all 1.41.
The six remaining cities are considered at “high” level — Las Piñas and Caloocan (1.37), Pasay and Valenzuela (1.30), Manila (1.28), and Quezon City (1.27).
OCTA said despite the decreasing reproduction rate, the public cannot expect lower cases in the coming weeks, as long as the reproduction remains above 1.
“Until then, we should expect new cases to continue to increase, albeit at a slower growth rate,” said OCTA.
Pointing to the past three weeks, the average daily cases in Metro Manila continued to increase from 3,527 (August 11 to 17), to 4,019 (August 18 to 24), to 4,637 (August 26 to September 1).
The case growth rate, however, has been decreasing from 52 percent (August 11 to 17), to 13 percent (August 18 to 24), to 12 percent (August 26 to September 1).
While the reproduction rate is down to “high” from “critical,” the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the region is still at “critical” level.
“The incidence rate of the NCR was 33.20 per 100,000 per day (i.e., critical level),” said OCTA.
Fourteen out of the 17 NCR local governments are at “critical” level based on their ADARs.
They are Pateros (86.71), San Juan (72.45), Makati (57.45), Navotas (48.04), Taguig (45.48), Muntinlupa (44.96), Pasig (43.82), Parañaque (40.44), Pasay (40.07), Malabon (37.59), Mandaluyong (37.24), Las Piñas (36.48), Valenzuela (33.88), and Manila (25.79).
Under “high” level in their ADARs are Caloocan (24.04), Quezon City (22.99), and Marikina (20.04).
